Economic growth in Europe is inhibited

The effects of the ongoing trade and economic conflict between the US and China slow down the growth of the world economy. Despite the fact that the economy of the European Union continues to grow up, the movement almost imperceptible. A few days ago was published the forecast of the EU economy, currently growing at 1.1 per cent, at that time, as the assessment in 2020 was reduced by 0.2%. The forecast was made excluding the UK.


European Commissioner for economy and Finance Pierre Moscovici said - “perhaps the most important point of the current forecast, which distinguishes it from the previous one — the lack of recovery. It is a reflection of serious blows to the Eurozone. It will take time to overcome the consequences of these attacks, so we are entering a new phase of moderate growth. Growth is undoubtedly inhibited”.


If last year the EU economy rose by 1.9%, this year the condition has only worsened. Proof of this can be Italy, in which this year's growth was only 0.1%. The international monetary Fund gave a more optimistic forecast with the rate of 1.2%. Experts rely on the good performance of Germany.


The Director of the European Department of the IMF said “the German economy on paper, not just work, but in some ways even exceeds its own long-term potential. Yes, the weakening significantly, but we continue to see a strong economy and see that the recovery really is.”


The views of the European Commission and the IMF about the growth of the German economy differ by 0.1%, the Monetary Fund gives figures of 0.4%. EU analysts believe that the European economy is quite sustainable and stable, for six years there is a growing, cumulative deficit below 1% of GDP, and the unemployment rate is the lowest since the beginning of the century.


Besides trade and economic conflict, the decline in growth has affected brakcet. The Eurozone is strongly associated with imports and exports, so growth will hit investment.


The situation with brexia still remains unclear. Pan-European analysis takes into account the UK's GDP, however, indicating a “purely technical assessment”. The European Union is still unclear what will happen to trade relations between Britain and the continent. If the issue is not resolved, London will lose the equivalent of 2-3 years of normal economic growth.

15 November, 2019

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