Since 1992, the famous Danish Bank Saxo Bank has introduced innovation in the industry predict. The feature of intelligence is to describe unlikely “black swans”, the appearance of which can lead to disastrous consequences in Economics and politics.
Below, we list a number of predictions from Saxo Bank that may become a reality:
The production of shale oil in the US will decline due to low profitability of investments in this industry. The event is the risk that in 2020 there will be a sharp change of the established order of things in the oil industry.
Russia and the OPEC countries, in turn, will cut production of conventional oil, which will lead to a rise in the price of Brent crude to USD 90 per barrel, then the American economy will suffer severe damage and President Donald trump will not escape impeachment.
Because of the conflict of Brussels with Hungary, Budapest will be deprived of EU subsidies, after which the Forint will drop to 375 for EUR - this will lead to the fact that Hungary will be forced to withdraw from the European Union even earlier than England.
With the support of Beijing and Moscow local Asian infrastructure investment Bank will publish a new reserve currency ADR (Asian Drawing Right), which provided decline of the American economy in the beginning will be equal to 2 USD.
Director of the Institute of strategic analysis FBK Igor Nikolaev says “of Course, it all interesting. However, the majority of Saxo Bank forecasts do not come true. The price of $90 per barrel, I do not believe. The rumors that no shale revolution, the Americans did not commit, was always. But life has proved otherwise. Forecast of the Danes clearly at odds with the current trends, now that there is a strong restructuring of the world oil market in favor of the United States. And the fact that oil prices hold at around $61, largely due to the arrangements of the OPEC member countries among themselves”.
The views of the majority of experts agree on the fact that the predictions do not come true, however some put emphasis on the fact that some prophecies Saxo Bank has come true yet. Such example can be the prediction about Brexit or about slowing global economic growth, which experts said in 2015. A clear example is the prediction about Bitcoin when it was said that at first the price will rise to 60 thousand USD, and then falls to 1 thousand USD. And if on the one hand, the experts made a mistake in the figures, on the other hand, the trend was defined quite true.